Personal Health

Researchers calculate the end of the epidemic in Italy – what does that mean for Germany?

When this is all over? Hardly a question likely to interest people so much as the after the end of the corona-related exception condition.

A new study from Italy gives you courage. There, where the Virus is particularly rampant violent grass, researchers calculated, when an end to the epidemic in sight could be. Also for Germany, the data should be interesting – we are, however, with regard to the course of Infection, only a few weeks behind Italy.

The Situation in Italian hospitals

Just at the end – a photographer has portrayed nurses and Doctors in Italy

The good news is that The curves are no longer increasing in Italy, exponentially

Still Italy is the country with the most Corona-dead. A good 11,500 people have died until Monday evening to the consequences of the pandemic. And still the grass the Virus magnetized very violently. Alone on Monday, the authorities reported over 4000 new infections within 24 hours.

The good news is that The curves are no longer increasing in Italy, exponentially. The Pierpaolo Siler, Italy’s Vice-Minister of health, said: “The contagion curve is growing, but linear and regular.” This suggests that the country has reached either already at the peak – experts speak of a Plateau – or at least very close.

Researchers at the Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance (the Bank of Italy financed) have looked at the civil protection every day, the Figures published now in more detail and from this a forecast of the course of Infection calculated. As the news site “Quotidiano” reported, the investigation that is to be expected with the peak of the infection wave at the beginning of April. Even then infect more people with the Virus, however less than in the previous days.

Since the infection has developed to happen in the individual regions of Italy are different, determined by the researcher for each area, a date on which it is likely to be no new infections are more likely to give.

Experts: at the end of the Corona epidemic in Italy in mid-may

The beginning of power, therefore, the Region of Trentino-South Tyrol: There is likely to of the 6. April is the first day without any new Infections will be. In Liguria, Umbria and Basilicata to the epidemic, a day later, on 7. April to the end of his. Then follow the Val D’aosta (8. April), Puglia (9. April), Friuli Venezia Giulia (10. April) and the Abruzzo (11. April).

A few days later, the scientists also found in Sicily and Veneto are no new infections have more to report (14. April), in the Piedmont it’s supposed to on 15. April be. Follow the Lazio with the capital Rome (16. April), Calabria (17. April) and Campania (20. April).

In the distance, have been particularly hard hit , Lombardy, count on the experts at the 22. April with the end of the epidemic, in the Emilia Romagna region, the second Hotspot in the North of Italy, on 28. April. In the Rest of the country, the zero point of the new infections are between the 5 to. and 16. May. lie.

Means: in mid-may, the country had survived the Worst of it – unless the people subsequently to the output limitations and further prevent infection.

Germany is about two and a half weeks behind Italy

The Numbers for Germany are a reason for hope? Well. Enrico Bucci is a biochemist, data analyst, and a Professor at Temple University in Philadelphia. The newspaper “La Repubblica”, he said, that the infection curve of most of the countries of the Western world may look similar – with a few days delay.

“Tutto andrà bene” – everything will be all right: The two men hanging at the Turin town hall this poster, speak to the hope of all Italians.

Accordingly, Spain will be six days behind Italy’s Hotspot Codogno (Lombardy), France, eleven days, the United States two weeks ago, the UK 16 days, the Netherlands 17, Germany and Belgium in 18 days. Buccis assessment is based, among other things, on how fast the Virus is spreading in the different countries. It plays a role in how quickly measures were taken, the infection curve to flatten out.

Therefore, Germany will reach the peak of the epidemic later, but he is not expected to be as high as, for example, in Spain.


"The most Beautiful was, again, to atmen": Italy "Patient &1#034; is healthy again

Comparing Buccis calculation with the Enaudi-study, one would expect an end to the Corona-crisis in Germany at the end of may. However, this only applies if the measures of the government continue to impact – and increases the infection curve in Germany, too, exponentially.

Source: “Quotidiano”, “La Repubblica”, Italian-style data center, news Agency ANSA

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